Hamas – Jewish Independent

Resilience, despair in Sderot

Inside the caterpillar shelter, an orange line indicates where one can safely stand beyond the range of flying shrapnel. (photo by Gil Zohar)

Miri Asulin personifies the contradictions of those who live in Israel’s cities and settlements bordering the Gaza Strip.

The 41-year-old mother of seven and principal of a brand-new elementary school in Ashkelon’s southern suburbs, 15 kilometres from the coastal enclave, commutes from her home in nearby Sderot, where she has been living for 26 years since she married. Until the barrage of 40 rockets fired from Gaza on the Sabbath of Oct. 26-27, she had dutifully and quietly followed Home Front Command orders. Though no one was killed in that bombardment, for Asulin it was the straw that broke the camel’s back.

Miri Asulin, mother of seven and principal of a brand-new elementary school, hosted the media recently to talk about the impacts of the rocket and mortar attacks from Gaza. (photo by Gil Zohar)

Addressing a pool of journalists in an air-conditioned classroom in her fortified building – the week before this Monday’s attacks from Gaza, which included more than 300 rockets or mortar bombs that day alone – Asulin asked that we not mention the name of her school since she has not received permission from the Ministry of Education to host the media. But she is unwilling to risk holding the interview outside on a pleasant fall day, lest a Colour Red rocket alert siren begin wailing.

“After 17 years [of rocket fire], I decided not to be quiet any longer about what is happening to us in Sderot and the south,” she began. “An attack on any Jew is an attack on all the Jewish people.”

What was it like that Shabbat as the sirens went off?

“The children were screaming,” she recalled. The worst part, she said, was the feeling of helplessness in the face of a “merciless enemy. We worship life. They worship death. One side has to be defeated.”

She said, “I’m no longer willing to remain silent. I’m not a politician or a cabinet member. I’m a mother.”

Asulin has witnessed the creeping paralysis of post-traumatic stress disorder. “Children have reverted to [being] bed-wetters, afraid to go to the bathroom alone. We’re going to have a generation of IDF soldiers who are traumatized,” she warned.

Ninety-four percent of Sderot’s children have PTSD symptoms, she said.

Mental health professionals treating PTSD say the best strategy for coping with psychological warfare is to maintain one’s daily routine. But those professionals urging resilience are themselves vulnerable and suffering from chronic burnout.

Asulin couldn’t sleep all night following the rocket barrage. “My body is in trauma,” she said. “I’m in shock.”

“With a snake, you cut off its head,” she said. Calling for reprisal attacks, she urged the Israeli government to kill 10 Hamas terrorists for every rocket fired.

***

As visceral as Asulin’s trauma is, Sderot itself shows few signs of the 25,000 Qassam rockets and mortars that have targeted the city and nearby kibbutzim for 17 years, killing 56 people. The city of 26,000 has no shattered glass, no bomb craters and no burned-out buildings. Superficially, Sderot looks green and prosperous.

Alon Davidi was reelected mayor in the Oct. 30 municipal elections, reflecting the satisfaction – or the apathy – of Sderot’s populace.

“Sderot is one of the most bombarded cities [in the world] since World War II,” according to Noam Bedein, the founder of the Sderot Media Centre. To his abiding frustration, there is no military solution to the rockets fired intermittently from Gaza, he said.

photo - Sderot’s growing skyline — Sderot’s growing skyline. *(photo by Gil Zohar)*

Paradoxically, Sderot has been experiencing a construction boom in recent years, he explained. Founded in 1952 as a dumping ground for new immigrants from Morocco, the development town struggled in obscurity even as newcomers arrived from the Soviet Union, Ethiopia and India. The turning point came in 2013, he said, when the rail line opened, linking Sderot and nearby Ofakim and Netivot with Tel Aviv and Beer Sheva. Attracted by low real estate prices and tax benefits, tens of thousands of people have relocated to the former development towns and nearby communities. Construction cranes, new shopping malls and a burgeoning skyline of high-rise apartment towers reflect the wave of commuters who flock to Sderot’s underground train station. Two thousand apartments have been purchased in Sderot since the 2014 war. The population is projected to double in the coming years, to 50,000 people. Relatively few families abandon Sderot, in part because the value of their homes won’t allow them to purchase equivalent housing in the more expensive centre of Israel.

Everywhere in the city, bomb shelters have sprouted like mushrooms after a rain, making Sderot the bomb shelter capital of the world. Hoping to lower the odds in the game of Russian roulette, the ubiquitous reinforced concrete structures have been strategically placed so that one can race to a shelter anywhere in the 15 seconds notice that the siren provides. Every bus stop has an adjoining shelter.

A colourful concrete caterpillar crawls through a playground. There are no steel doors. Bedein explained that the precious seconds it takes a child to pull open a heavy door could mean the difference between life and death. Inside the caterpillar shelter, an orange line indicates where one can safely stand beyond the range of flying shrapnel.

***

photo - A chanukiyah, made from Qassam rockets, at Sderot’s Hesder Yeshiva — A chanukiyah, made from Qassam rockets, at Sderot’s Hesder Yeshiva. (photo by Gil Zohar)

Rabbi Ari Katz, the director of public relations at Sderot’s Hesder Yeshiva – where soldiers combine religious studies with army service for five years – has broad perspective on the rockets targeting Sderot. Originally from Chicago, he lived in Gush Katif until 2005, when the Israeli government uprooted the 8,000 Jews living in the Gaza Strip. It was that unilateral disengagement, followed by the 2007 Hamas takeover of Gaza from the Palestinian Authority, which created the conditions for the current rocket campaign, he said.

“We’re in a standing pattern, waiting to see what will be,” he said. Standing on the roof lookout point, which offers a panoramic view towards Gaza, one kilometre away, he proudly pointed to the new construction edging towards the frontier.

“They see the cranes,” he said, referring to the people of Gaza. “They think we’re crazy.”

Gil Zohar is a journalist based in Jerusalem.

Rivlin visits Netivot

Israeli President Reuven Rivlin addresses a group of local residents in a protected space in the northern Negev city of Netivot on Nov. 13. (photo by Ashernet)

On a tour of the city, Netivot Mayor Yehiel Zohar told President Reuven Rivlin about how buildings there are protected and about the events of the previous 24 hours. Rivlin also heard details about the work of the psychological and mental support services in the city, and the help given to children and the population as a whole after Monday’s missile launches from Gaza. “We are all under attack, under fire, whose aim is to disrupt our daily life,” said Rivlin. “Your strength gives us all strength. I have said in the past and I will continue to say, the area around Gaza is part of Israel. When the sirens are screaming here, we hear them in our hearts in Jerusalem, Tel Aviv and all over the country.” The president then visited one of the shelters in the town. In meeting local residents, he repeated appeals to follow the Israel Defence Forces’ orders.

Stand up, be counted

Canada’s behaviour at the United Nations last week is being analyzed and found wanting by many Canadian Zionists. Canada abstained from a vote on a resolution that condemned Israel in a one-sided manner for the recent violence at the Gaza border.

The four-page resolution denounced the “excessive, disproportionate and indiscriminate force by the Israeli forces.” The resolution passed 120-8, with 45 countries, including Canada, abstaining.

An American amendment that would have condemned Hamas for sending rockets at Israeli targets was defeated 78-58, with 26 abstentions. Canada voted in favour of the failed amendment.

According to Canadian Jewish News, Canada’s ambassador to the UN, Marc-André Blanchard, said the abstention was due to the resolution’s failure to explicitly name Hamas.

“Hamas has been oppressing Palestinians. Hamas and other terrorist groups have been inciting violence and hatred and this should be clear in the resolution. The resolution explicitly names Israel, while failing to name any other groups involved,” Blanchard said.

The question, then, is why Canada did not vote against, rather than abstain, as Shimon Koffler Fogel noted.

“Ironically, Ambassador Blanchard’s explanation of the vote made the most compelling case for why Canada should have joined with the U.S., Australia and Israel in voting against the resolution,” said Koffler Fogel, chief executive officer of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs.

The larger issue is that the United Nations, created with such idealism and optimism after the Holocaust and the Second World War, has become beholden to ideological blocs dominated by dictatorial regimes. In a world with no shortage of humanitarian catastrophes, the General Assembly’s time and resources are wasted with obsessive attention on Israel.

Additionally sad is that the superb, irreplaceable work done by so many subsidiary agencies of the UN suffers by association with the actions of the General Assembly.

Some have suggested, in light of the UNGA silliness, that democratic countries should withdraw and form their own alternative UN-type organization. Whatever value that might have, walking away is not the right choice. Canada and other countries with common sense foreign policies should remain as a voice of reason.

Which is all the more reason why our choice to remain silent on the latest anti-Israel resolution is the wrong one. If we are going to serve as best we can in a flawed assembly, the least we can do is stand up and be counted.

Terror infrastructure discovered

Some of the terror weapons found by Israel Security Agency (ISA) personnel. (photos by ISA via Ashernet)

In recent months, the ISA, Israel Defence Forces and Israel Police have uncovered a large and active terrorist infrastructure that operated in the Nablus area on the West Bank from October 2017 until late April 2018, when more than 20 members of the group were detained by Israeli security forces. Most of the group’s members belonged to Hamas; some had extensive experience in terrorist operations, including the production of explosives. ISA investigations found that the group intended to carry out several attacks in various Israeli cities. Among the items seized were improvised explosive devices, including one weighing 10 kilograms; materials for the production of explosives; weapons; and instructions for the manufacture of bombs and explosive materials.

Place blame where due

For weeks since March, each Friday, thousands of Gazans have rallied at the border with Israel, leading to violent confrontations with the Israeli military. The objective is to build up to an incursion of such proportion that Israel’s military is unable to prevent an invasion into Israeli territory. The stated goal of the so-called March of Return is to catalyze the movement toward a “right of return,” which would have the not coincidental consequence of demographically threatening the Jewish nature of Israel.

Of course, even tens of thousands of Palestinians trying to breech the border will not result in this goal. Instead, there is an unstated goal: Hamas seeks to turn global opinion (further) against Israel. Shamefully, it seems that a few dozen Palestinian lives is a small price to pay, in Hamas’s worldview, for the PR benefits they deliver. As the New York Times reported Sunday, at least some of the protesters believe that they have nothing to lose. “It doesn’t matter to me if they shoot me or not,” said a 22-year-old protester interviewed by the paper. “Death or life – it’s the same thing.” That attitude will suit Hamas just fine.

To overseas audiences, march proponents depict it as an unarmed, peaceful, civilian-led mass action – and a peaceful protest is something we could accept, if not agree with. However, evidence shows that it is stage-managed by Hamas and anything but peaceful. Flying swastika-festooned kites with petrol bombs are sent over the border, massive tire fires are set to obscure the view of Israeli soldiers and tug-of-war lines are formed to pull down the border barrier, while crowds simultaneously hurl projectiles. At this past weekend’s action, there were reports of a few protesters armed with pistols.

Writing in the Times two days earlier, Fadi Abu Shammalah, executive director of the General Union of Cultural Centres in Gaza and a documentary film producer, insisted that he loves life, but that he is prepared to risk it to give his children a future with dignity.

A more effective means to ensure that Palestinian children live a life of dignity would be for Shammalah and others like him to write opinion pieces in the New York Times and to agitate elsewhere for the Hamas leadership to abandon both violence and their refusal to live in coexistence with the Jewish state. These are the two prerequisites to Palestinian self-determination. But such actions could well get Shammalah and others killed faster than marching against the border with Israel.

A sovereign country has the fundamental right to protect its borders from invasion. Ideally, this could be achieved without the use of live ammunition, and should minimize casualties as much as possible. Killing unarmed protesters is not acceptable.

Exclusively blaming Israel, however, is unjust. But this is more than misplaced blame: it has the precise consequence of rewarding Hamas’s strategy of sacrificing its own citizens. The more world media and activists condemn Israel and reward Hamas, the more Palestinians will be pushed toward the border. In such a scenario, the blame lies not solely with Israel or even with Hamas. The blame must be shared by these overseas enablers who, by rewarding Hamas, truly deserve part of the responsibility for the deaths and injuries.

IDF colonel visits Vancouver

Left to right: Ilan Pilo, Jewish National Fund, Pacific Region; Col. Adam Susman, Israel Defence Forces defence attaché to Canada; and Rabbi Shmulik Yeshayahu of the Ohel Yaakov Community Kollel. (photo from Community Kollel)

While acknowledging that the situation in the Middle East is constantly changing, Col. Adam Susman told those gathered at the Ohel Yaakov Community Kollel on July 18 that the biggest threat to Israel is Iran, “as it has been for years.”

Susman, who is the Ottawa-based Israel Defence Forces (IDF) defence attaché to Canada, was in Vancouver at the invitation of the Jewish National Fund of Canada, Pacific Region.

Born in the United Kingdom, Susman moved to Moshav Sde Nitzan in southern Israel at the age of 3, according to JNF’s website. He joined the IDF’s Givati Brigade in 1987 and became a battalion commander after serving as head of the anti-ballistic and training branches. In 2005, he was appointed commander of Hanegev infantry brigade and chief of staff of the Sinai division, protecting Israel’s southern border. In 2009, he became commander of the Dan district in Home Front Command, working to ensure the safety of civilians in the metro Tel Aviv area. Prior to his appointment as the defence attaché to Canada in 2014, Susman was head of the International Military Cooperation Department of the IDF General Staff.

Rabbi Shmulik Yeshayahu of the Community Kollel was the emcee of the Vancouver event. “It is fitting to have this meeting during the weekly Torah portion of Matot-Masei,” he said in his opening comments. “In this parashah, a portion of the Jewish people stays behind on the way to the Holy Land, preferring to farm on the other side of the Jordan River rather than go in and fight for the land. They stayed there while the rest of the tribes fought and, later, they joined them. In Judaism, we have great respect for those who risk their lives to protect other people, and especially our homeland.”

Before introducing Susman to those gathered, Ilan Pilo, executive director and Jerusalem emissary of JNF Canada, Pacific Region, presented a brief video about JNF’s activities throughout Israeli history. He then invited the president of Royal Canadian Legion’s Shalom Branch, Ralph Jackson, to speak. Jackson, who introduced himself as “the only Jew in the Scots Guards during World War Two,” presented a donation of $5,000 to Susman for Beit Halochem, a nonprofit that cares for disabled Israeli veterans.

Leonard Shapiro, Shalom Branch vice-president, noted how the branch was formed during a time of great prejudice, when Jews needed their own veterans organization. “It has been a long time now since we’ve gone to war, however, thank God. We don’t get many new members. If anyone here would like to join and support our organization and activities, you don’t have to have been in the army, you just need to be over 18 and not have committed any horrible crimes. Little ones, OK,” he joked.

Susman shared a bit about himself and his experience in the Givati Brigade, which was the most highly decorated brigade in the 2014 conflict, a fact no doubt known to the many IDF veterans in the audience.

Susman is one of 16 Israeli attachés around the world – a small number that, he said, was due to Israel never having been part of a military coalition with another country. He outlined the ties between the Israeli and Canadian militaries, the chief threats to Israel today and the IDF’s response.

“There is cooperation between the IDF and the Canadian military strategically and practically,” he said. “The relations between the IDF and the Canadian military are good.”

Asked if the change of Canada’s federal government to the Liberals from the Conservatives had had any effect on that relationship, Susman said it had not.

Turning to the situation in Israel’s own region, he emphasized the lack of stability.

“The Middle East is an interesting neighbourhood, always changing – what I tell you today may not be true tomorrow,” he said.

“The biggest threat is Iran, as it has been for years,” he continued. “[Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad took every opportunity to say that Israel should disappear from the map of the world. The main threat they’ve posed has been building Hezbollah – without Iran, it would be a small organization. In recent years, Hezbollah has been fighting in Syria and they’ve lost a lot of people, but they’ve also gained a lot of operational experience. They have also steadily increased in rocket capabilities and can now reach Eilat.”

Susman said that Syria had previously been a big threat to Israel, but that’s no longer the case, due to its civil war and ISIS, as well as the reduction of the country’s chemical weapons by Western countries.

Hamas in Gaza is the next biggest threat, he said, noting that it is also supported by Iran. “They only exist to fight,” he said. “They are not building up Gazans as they claim. A good example is the tunnel found during 2014 Protective Edge, kilometres of resources that could [have been used] for clinics and schools. Gaza is a piece of cheese, there is 80 metres between the top and the water table, dotted with tunnels. That’s a major challenge.

“The Sinai is also a security problem,” he added. “Nobody controls it, and so everybody is in there. There was no Egyptian military following the peace agreement, so that’s the result. The MFO (Multinational Force and Observers) was created to survey the Sinai and, by the way, there are many Canadians in it.

“Some people say the IDF is a military that has a country,” quipped Susman. “We are strong, and we are good at finding solutions.”

Susman cited Iron Dome as an example. The IDF initially divided Israel into 157 zones with two missile interceptors for each missile. That was successful, he said, but each missile cost $70,000 so that intercepting one fired missile cost $140,000. Therefore, the IDF sought improvements. Israel was divided into 254 zones, he said, and each one had only one missile interceptor per fired missile. This system has a 90% success rate stopping missiles, which is still not good enough in Susman’s view. “We will improve yet further,” he said.

During the question-and-answer period, an audience member commented, “You said Iran is the biggest threat against Israel but you didn’t say what Israel is doing against Iran.”

“That’s right,” replied Susman without further explanation, eliciting laughter from the crowd.

The evening ended with the singing of “Am Yisrael Chai,” led by Yeshayahu.

Matthew Gindin is a freelance journalist, writer and lecturer. He writes regularly for the Forward and All That Is Interesting, and has been published in Religion Dispatches, Situate Magazine, Tikkun and elsewhere. He can be found on Medium and Twitter.

Glavin fights falsehoods

Terry Glavin (photo from Terry Glavin)

A self-described “man of the left,” journalist Terry Glavin discovered he was an “accidental Zionist” during the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, when he noticed how the mood of the antiwar movement on the left was “almost hysterical,” and that it was not, in fact, antiwar, but rather pro-Hezbollah.

“There was something deeply toxic about the phenomenon that described itself as antiwar,” he told the Independent, adding that, irrespective of one’s viewpoint on Israeli policy, “if one was to choose the only principled, progressive position, it would have been to be on Israel’s side.” And, he noted, “Arab friends and Palestinian activists [have] gravitated towards the same idea.”

The Irish-Canadian said he has since “been associated with a sturdy defence of Israel in Canada,” in his columns, which have appeared in the National Post, Vancouver Sun, Globe and Mail, Georgia Straight and Ottawa Citizen.

Glavin will be among the speakers at this year’s FEDtalks on Sept. 22 at Queen Elizabeth Theatre, helping to launch the Metro Vancouver Jewish community’s annual campaign.

In addition to his vast and varied published subject matter, Glavin’s work as a journalist has taken him around the globe. His talk will examine, among other ideas, what Canada could contribute for healing the world, as well as what it means to be an “accidental Zionist,” a phrase he said he borrowed from Martin Sampson of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs.

In his work, Glavin strives to clarify the clashes in Israel, to help people understand them better.

“It’s not an Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The war is with Hamas,” he said. “Who are the worst enemies of Palestinian freedom? It’s not Bibi Netanyahu. The most devoted committed enemy of Palestinian sovereignty, Palestinian liberty, rule of law, democracy, freedom are Hamas, Islamic jihad, Hezbollah and Tehran.

“Anyone who apologizes for them, reiterates their propaganda lines, is an enemy of the Palestinians and their freedoms.”

Having researched and written about the hatred of Jews and Israel, he concludes, “There is something unique about antisemitism.

“It’s not just another bigotry. This talk of Israel eliminationism – if it’s not antisemitism, what is it? It might not be Judenrein (free of Jews), but it’s Judenstaatrein, no Jewish state,” he said.

“The Jews are unique, entitled to a nation-state of their own … [as much,] if not more, than any other nationality on earth.”

The liberal left, moreover, has some self-reflecting to do, to know that “certain postures, certain habits of speech, are now unacceptable, and some obsessive preoccupations are no longer tolerated,” he said.

In his opinion, these statements include using the term Zionist as a pejorative, “a term of abuse”; saying that “Israel is the primary impediment to peace in the Middle East”; and claiming the “false idea that criticism of Israel is automatically antisemitic.”

Seeking to bust this latter myth, in a bulk email to journalist colleagues, Glavin asked if any of them could offer an example where a legitimate critique of Israel has been denounced as antisemitism.

“It didn’t exist,” said Glavin. “I could not find any reputable Jewish or Israel organization or individuals who ever introduced a legitimate criticism of Israel as antisemitic. It’s a canard.”

Meanwhile, another falsehood emanating from the left and from leaders of the Arab world, he said, is the idea that Israel is to blame for the region’s – and, sometimes, the world’s – ills.

“This is what one Arab dictator after the next has forced down the throats of generations of Arabs to explain their own destitution and dysfunction,” he said.

Some are rejecting that narrative, however.

“The people have begun to discover they’ve been lied to – that Israel isn’t the problem,” said Glavin. “The jackboot on [their] neck is Baathist, not Israel.”

For tickets to FEDtalks and information on all of the speakers, visit jewishvancouver.com/fedtalks2016.

Dave Gordon is a Toronto-based freelance writer whose work has appeared in more than a hundred publications around the world.

Bleak future for Israel

Raphael Hoult, winner of the inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition. (photo from Raphael Hoult)

“A Game of Clocks: An Analysis of the Situation in the Middle East and Its Effects on Israel” by Winnipeg’s Raphael Hoult is the winner of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs’ inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition.

Hoult, a physics major at the University of Winnipeg in his second year of studies, conjured up a mind-bending theory about the stability of Middle East security and consulted expert sources for his essay.

In physics, Hoult’s interests lie in the field of quantum gravitation, which attempts to combine two major theories – those of general relativity and quantum mechanics.

“These two theories don’t play well together,” said Hoult. “They conflict in places. The biggest place they conflict is in that every force in the universe has been quantized, meaning that we’ve found a very small, discrete package of it in the universe. For example, electromagnetism is delivered by something called a photon. The other forces have something that delivers them, as well. But, with gravity, we’ve found no such thing yet. What we say is we haven’t been able to quantify it, though there are a lot of theories out there for how to solve that problem. There’s string theory. Another is loop quantum gravity, that attempts to bring some parts together.

“I want to help look for a theory of quantum gravity, so we can finally resolve this dilemma … combine the two theories into one bigger theory, a more complete theory. And, hopefully, that will give us a lot more insight into the way gravity works and allow us to do more with our understanding of gravity – to utilize it more, similar to the way our deeper understanding of electricity and magnetism has allowed us to do more intricate electronics in the past couple years.”

According to Hoult, this reconciliation of quantum mechanics and general relativity has been the Holy Grail of physics for the past 50-some years, and solving it will be huge for physicists and the world as we know it.

“The proposed theoretical messenger particle for gravity is the graviton, which is something we’ve not yet observed at all,” he said. “Quantum mechanics requires there to be a graviton…. General relativity in no way makes reference to a graviton.

“The main thing is quantum mechanics works really well with very small things, general relativity works really well for really big things. Things with a lot of mass are usually very large. The problem comes when you have things that are very massive and also very small, such as neutron stars or black holes. These are very dense, have a lot of mass and exert a lot of gravitational force, but they are also very small. In the case of a black hole, they are actually on the atomic level. So, quantum mechanics is very important to the way they work, but general relativity also is in play. When our two theories don’t work and they are supposed to be working at the same time, that’s a problem and something we want to fix.”

In addition to his knowledge of physics, Hoult is also well-versed in Israeli politics. “I’ve actually never taken a political science course at university,” he acknowledged, “but I went to Gray Academy [of Jewish Education in Winnipeg], so I had a very strong basis in knowledge about Israel. I had a good grounding there. I also read the Times of Israel and Haaretz every day.”

When Hoult saw an advertisement for the Barry Rubin Essay Competition on Facebook, it piqued his interest. The contest topic was, “What does the current regional turmoil in the Middle East mean for Israel?”

In his essay, Hoult said, “The three main critical points I talked about were the constancy of Hezbollah, Hamas and Daesh (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS]). I wrote about the fact that Hezbollah is involved in the war in Syria, specifically as affiliates of Bashar Al-Assad. They support him and are fighting on behalf of him. On the flipside, a branch of ISIS, called Al-Wilayat Sinai, is operating in the Sinai Peninsula desert against the Egyptians, making their lives very difficult. They’ve also struck up an alliance with Hamas.”

According to Hoult, the main three players in regards to Israel involve Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in Gaza and Al-Wilayat Sinai (Daesh) in the south. Hoult does not delve into the Iranian threat in his essay, apart from Iran’s role in supporting these groups.

“My hypothesis was that these three forces are connected to one another,” he said. “And, because of the ongoing campaign against ISIS, my hypothesis is that, as soon as that campaign succeeds and breaks down ISIS, all hell will break loose for Israel.”

Hoult explained that this theory takes into account Hezbollah’s huge military arsenal, which is estimated at around 100,000 rockets, and their ability to hit every point in Israel from Metula to Eilat, combined with the southern threat from Hamas and from the Al-Wilayat Sinai, which, so far, has been mainly fighting the Egyptians.

“Once ISIS collapses in the north, the Al-Wilayat Sinai … will suddenly be like a tentacle that has been cut off from the squid,” he said. “It will have no control and will be in desperate throes to stay alive, making it likely that it will involve at least a couple cross-border raids. If those involve any Israeli deaths, it will force Israel to respond, which is an issue, due to the fact that Israel can’t cross the border without Egyptian permission.

“There is also the fact that Hamas is having another military build-up,” he added.

Hoult predicts this will likely lead to another war in 2017 and, once that war is over, he said Hezbollah would have had ample time to gather its troops and possibly attack Israel from the north. “This is not a good thing for Israel, as Hezbollah is dead set on destroying Israel if they can,” he said.

As to why Hoult thinks his essay was selected as the winner, he said he is not sure, although he imagines it may have “had something to do with all the sources cited, creating a compelling likelihood of my hypotheses coming true.”

One of his many concerns is that “the primary backer of Hezbollah and Hamas is Iran. Iran has just had billions of dollars unlocked, due to the nuclear deal … which I’m not going to condemn or support, though I’m a little bit skeptical of whether or not unlocking those funds was a good thing.”

Rebeca Kuropatwa is a Winnipeg freelance writer.

Israel hopes tourists return

Temple Mount Western Wall on Shabbat. (photo by David Shankbone via en.wikipedia.org)

Robin and Jon Sirkin prepared to celebrate their son Eitan’s bar mitzvah in Jerusalem last weekend. There was a Dr. Who theme and an ice-cream bar planned for the reception at the synagogue after the services. As part of the celebrations, Robin Sirkin’s brother, sister, aunt and cousin were planning to make their first trip to Israel. She booked a trip to southern Israel and a meal at one of Jerusalem’s most expensive restaurants for 15 people.

Four weeks ago, just after the ceasefire was declared between Israel and Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, they all canceled their trips. Sirkin, who moved to Israel from Cleveland three years ago with their four children, said she tried to convince her relatives that the ceasefire would hold, but to no avail.

“It’s devastating and heartbreaking and feels unsupportive,” Sirkin told the Media Line. “I think they’re overreacting, but we have a different sense of security here.

She said they held off telling their son that his relatives had canceled, hoping that as the big day he approached he would be more excited about the ceremony and the party, and less disappointed.

“He was a little sad, but he’s trying not to focus on that,” she said.

The Sirkins are not alone. Mark Feldman, CEO of Ziontours, said that the seven weeks of fighting between Israel and Hamas over the summer has devastated tourism for the rest of the year, except for the Jewish holidays this month, and Christmas. Feldman said they lost about 2,000 bookings, and most of the time waived the cancellation fees.

“Tourism for the rest of 2014 simply doesn’t exist,” Feldman said. “Now we’re looking toward 2015, and hoping the government will begin to lay the seeds to allow tourism to begin to come back.”

Time for dynamic on-campus discourse on Israel/Palestine

With September upon us and the Gaza war behind us, university students may be facing Israel-on-campus discourse this semester with some extra trepidation. I often hear Jewish parents wondering about how we can best prepare our kids to “face” Israel opponents on campus. As a past active Jewish undergraduate student myself and now as a professor who specializes in the topic of Israel/Palestine, here are some of my thoughts about the best way to approach the topic of Israel on campus.

Critical thinking above all else. In today’s political climate, no one is served by advancing talking points rather than asking tough questions and truly listening. Jewish students should not have to see themselves as ambassadors of the Jewish state. Israel has its own cadre of hasbarah professionals. As a place to create intelligent and productive global citizens, the role of university is to help students absorb information and apply conceptual reasoning in a critically engaged way. Jewish students should not have to leave their critical faculties at the door on the subject of Israel, nor should they have to consider the classroom environment – with its natural predilection for analyzing multiple sides of a problem – as hermetically sealed from the rest of the campus, where more informal discussion and occasional activism takes place.

Put aside the labels. Students would be forgiven for believing that they must adopt a label like “pro-Israel” or “pro-Palestine” either before arriving on campus or while there. But, as I consistently try to show my students, those terms mean little. To some, being pro-Israel means supporting the settler enterprise. To others, it means spurring Israel to make peace with the Palestinian Authority. Similarly, being pro-Palestine may mean supporting Hamas’ war effort, just as it might mean supporting Mahmoud Abbas’ attempt to reach a peace agreement with the Israeli government. By assuming a monolithic stance, students mentally close out possibilities. Students who care about the region must take time to consider what is best for the individuals and nations living there.

Focus on the “why” questions. While the out-of-classroom campus climate can unfortunately tend towards the “blame game,” where activists point fingers at one side or another, students would be best served by focusing on the “why” questions. Analyzing why each set of political actors takes the actions they do is ultimately the best thing students can do to deepen their understanding of the region and perhaps to ultimately be in a position to help bring about desired outcomes. Importantly, addressing the “why” questions is not the same as providing moral justifications. “Why does Hamas shoot rockets?” could be addressed by an array of possible answers, all of which should be put on the table and evaluated using the best knowledge we have, before making gut assumptions. Focusing on these explanatory questions can also help to further dialogue with people whose instinctual political allegiances may be different.

Practice empathy. Moving from the “why” questions to the “what should be” questions is best done through a position of empathy. Understanding the narratives, experiences, and emotional and material reality of each “side” is essential to prescribing political outcomes that will stick. Just as demanding that Israel give up its Jewish identity is going to be a non-starter, so too is not recognizing that no people is going to accept living under occupation in perpetuity.

Start early. Finally, it’s all good and fine to hope that our community’s Jewish students are primed for Israel engagement on campus, but the kind of critical engagement that enables students to deploy all their intellectual and cultural tools must start early. Our community needs to ensure that spoken Hebrew instruction in our day and supplementary schools is a priority, thus paving the way for our students to engage with Israel and Israelis in a more intimate and nuanced way whether via social media or, ideally, in person. Similarly, our elementary and high schools should ensure that wide-ranging discussion on Israel and the Israeli-Palestinian relationship is encouraged, and that groupthink is avoided. An informed and critically engaged citizen will be one who can contribute most potently – and that is ultimately good for Jewish continuity, to boot.

Mira Sucharov is an associate professor of political science at Carleton University. She blogs at Haaretz and the Jewish Daily Forward. This article was originally published in the Ottawa Jewish Bulletin.