Many American Jews have given up on the Democratic Party. Seeing intractable opponents of Israel within its congressional ranks, many Jewish and pro-Israel voters decided that their best or only hope was within the Republican Party.
This trend was based partly on the seemingly knee-jerk antizionism of a chunk of the Democrats’ congressional caucus and by the oft-repeated idea that Donald Trump is the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House.
There are myriad problems with these assumptions.
First, abandoning one party in a two-party system is a high-risk strategy. Putting all eggs in one basket is not a wise approach in any scenario.
It is especially unwise in a scenario where the egg basket is controlled by a mercurial figure who has demonstrated no consistent loyalty to any person or idea, and whose fits of rage are directed at ostensible allies as often as they are at enemies.
The US-Israeli war with Iran earlier this year held the potential for a complete reshaping of the Middle East region. The defeat of the Islamic revolutionary regime in Iran would have tectonically altered the course of the region’s history, eliminating the greatest source of state-sponsored terror, massively (and further) reducing the capacity of Israel’s nearest enemies, Hamas and Hezbollah.
Based at least partly on the idea that regime change must come from within Iran, the United States in particular (but Israel as a partner in the war) stopped short of pursuing regime change.
The resolution to that war – the memorandum of understanding and ongoing talks aimed at a lasting cessation of violence – is apparently intended to prevent Iran’s drive toward nuclear military capacity. Perhaps it will.
At the same time, however, although concrete details are suspiciously sketchy, indications suggest that Iran is likely to come out of the war not chastened, but strengthened.
What is known about the apparent accord drafted by the United States and Iran is that it will deluge the Islamic regime in hundreds of billions of dollars in “reconstruction and development” funds. Time was that the defeated in a war paid reparations. Under the Trump doctrine, it seems, the historical penance is reversed. The defeated now apparently receive unprecedented windfalls. And this reputed $300 billion avalanche of cash does not include the freeing up another colossal sum of currently frozen Iranian assets.
Many commentators had suggested that a debilitated and humiliated Iran, economically devastated by the war, would be weakened to the point where the Iranian people would be able to rise up and overthrow their oppressors.
Instead, it appears that the regime will see itself in an erstwhile unimagined place of wealth and triumph.
The widespread idea that a weakened Iranian regime would lead the populace to revolution based on continued and worsening daily economic realities seems likely to be averted by a cash bonanza that will allow the ayatollahs to bribe their populace into complacency.
Worse for everyone, the flush regime will be able to rearm Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and its broader network of evildoers.
What several weeks ago looked like the potential for the greatest realignment for the better in regional history now appears like the worst possible outcome. Iran seems to be given a free hand to pursue its darkest agendas, bankrolled by the “peace agreement” improbably crafted by the author of the 1980s bestseller The Art of the Deal.
If there is a single lesson here for Canadians and citizens in other democracies, it is that we must not allow the well-being of the bilateral relationship with Israel to become politicized. Party regulars in challenging environments must remain and fight, rather than abandon the traditional multipartisan approach to Israeli security.
There can be no denying that, at present, one party in Canada has a near-monopoly on pro-Israel policy. This appeared to be the case in the United States until a few hours ago. We can see how quickly things can change, leaving Israel effectively friendless at the highest levels.
Defending Israel in centrist and leftist political environments may seem challenging if not futile. But abandoning those spaces to haters because a mouthy carpetbagger comes along saying the right things until he turns like a mad dog on those who thought they were his friends leaves us in the worst imaginable spot.