Disaster looms in Iraq

Editorial

When American President George W. Bush made a historical equation between Vietnam and Iraq recently, it seemed a head-scratcher for many. Why would a president who is desperate to keep public support for his war from tanking even further raise a comparison with what was, until recently, at least, the definitive example of a failed American foreign venture?

What Bush may have been conveying is the fragile existence of American allies in Iraq. Witness the tragic images of the Americans' last hours in Vietnam: desperate Vietnamese, whose support for and co-operation with the Americans would mean catastrophe for them after the pullout, pleaded for their lives to be admitted to the American embassy compound and clung to the skids of departing helicopters.

If the Americans pull out of Iraq before full order is established by Iraqi forces, there will be great fears of retribution. If the Americans stay long enough to see a reasonable transition to Iraqi-run security and civil policing, the worst may be averted. But there seems little reason to think that things are improving at a velocity that would see civil Iraqi order by the time American opinion, or even a change in administration, forces a pullout.

One way or another, sooner or later, the Americans will leave Iraq to the Iraqis. If the hornet's nest their invasion stirred up is not yet under control, the Americans will have an obligation to do what little they can to ameliorate the worst sort of bloodbath. America, until recently known as the world's sole superpower, cannot restrain a civil war in Iraq, even with all its might. If it removes what forces it has keeping the violence barely under control, the lid that could blow off is truly fearsome. The eruption resulting from the vacuum left by American forces could make Saddam Hussein's regime's murderous legacy a bedtime story by comparison.

In Vietnam, a long-simmering conflict was inherited from the French and passed tragically from president to president before the American involvement finally ended in the tragic abandonment of their Vietnamese allies.

In Iraq, falsified evidence justified the war in the first place, based apparently on the macabre whim of the president himself to venture into a foreign war. Even if all the evidence upon which the invasion was founded were wrong, the deposing of Hussein has been considered the one undeniably positive outcome. But if the number of dead and the condition of the living deteriorate in ways that are quantitatively or qualitatively worse than under the Baathist dictatorship, even this small comfort will have been for nought. And the opportunity costs – if this is the right term – missed by the Americans because of their involvement in Iraq could have consequences beyond measure. The Americans are, for instance, in no position to take on Iran, which could reasonably be considered now a greater threat than Iraq ever was. When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans, remember, there were dead Americans lying in the streets for days, in part because those who would have been called in to help were half a world away. Thanks to the disastrous decisions of a terrible president, not only are Americans incapable of playing a much-needed role on the world stage today, but they will almost certainly enter a period of isolation when they finally extricate themselves from the current quagmire.

At this time of year, thoughts turn to atoning for sins against God and fellow humans. This would seem apt for the American administration, particularly in light of shameful new statistics.

It is worth noting that the chaos erupting daily in Iraq has produced, like all such disasters, refugees. Approximately two million Iraqis are estimated to have fled the country, with an even larger number being internally displaced. Most have fled to Syria and Jordan, which will have repercussions for the future that can only be guessed at.

Of these millions of uprooted souls, barely more than 100 have been admitted to the United States. Villages all over the Middle East – and even Sweden – have taken more Iraqi refugees, by far, than the entire country most responsible for the problem.

The American ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, to his credit, made the unusual request that all Iraqis working for the United States in that country – as many as 110,000 people – be granted immigrant visas. Apparently, as the likelihood of American failure or withdrawal rises, these people become the most likely to flee, their role as "collaborators" placing them in the same sort of danger allied Vietnamese faced.

This war was conceived on lies, executed disastrously and will almost certainly end badly. Admitting 110,000 or more Iraqi refugees will have an impact on the United States, but given all that has transpired, the United States owes the people of Iraq at least this.

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