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November 28, 2008
A look into Mideast's future
Veteran journalist Herb Keinon discusses political situation.
RON FRIEDMAN
Barack Obama's recent victory in the U.S. presidential election, as well as upcoming elections in Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Iran, mean that we are likely to see some changes in the Middle East, according to Jerusalem Post diplomatic correspondent Herb Keinon. What these may be, and how they'll affect Israel, was the focus of his lecture at King David High School last week.
Nearly 80 people came out to hear Keinon's talk, titled Big Change is Coming, about the same number who came to his previous Vancouver lecture in April, when he talked about life under constant terror in Israel. This time, Keinon, who has been writing on Middle East diplomacy and security matters for nearly 20 years, spoke about his thoughts on the developments we're likely to see over the next few years.
Before speculating about the future, Keinon discussed the Bush administration and its impact on the region. Keinon characterized the past eight years as a "honeymoon period" in U.S.-Israel relations. "Whatever you think about George Bush, the man set a new standard for being pro-Israel in the White House," said Keinon, citing the free hand that Bush gave Israel to fight terrorism, unprecedented levels of military co-operation and intelligence-sharing and the airing of the ideology that security precedes peace. "He accepted Ariel Sharon's argument that first Israel had to have security and only then could it make peace.... This was a huge difference, a fundamental change in the paradigm of diplomacy in the Middle East and one that could be seen in the Road Map and in the Annapolis process," said Keinon. He also pointed out some of Bush's mistakes, noting the pushing forward of elections in the PA, despite warnings that Hamas was likely to win, and Bush's responsibility for lowering world opinion of the United States. "But, all told, Bush's rule will be very favorably remembered in Israel; the music from the administration was very pleasing to the Israeli government's ears."
Keinon argued that Obama's desire to achieve change in Washington could benefit Israel, that those who support Israel in the legislative bodies could use it as leverage to strengthen Israel's cause.
Keinon, who visited the States shortly after the country's elections and spoke to many people there about likely developments under an Obama administration, said that the differences would be in the nuances. "It means that, on the settlement issue, Obama is likely to be much more firm and vocal in U.S. opposition.... It means that, in White House reactions to IDF activities in the West Bank, there will be an emphasis on 'not poisoning the atmosphere for peace' and for not causing civilian casualties," said Keinon. He also said that Obama would likely push for Israel to accept the Arab peace initiative of 2002.
On the influence of the Obama victory on the Israeli elections, Keinon said people were already talking about the "Obibi effect," the worry that it would be impossible for Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu to work together if Netanyahu were elected; a concern, continued Keinon, that Netanyahu's political competitors are quick to inflate.
Keinon addressed the cynicism and disillusionment that Israelis have with the democratic process. He marvelled at the simplicity and decisiveness of the American electorate and contrasted it to that of the Israelis, in view of Israel's upcoming general elections, scheduled for February. "We, the Israeli electorate, are about to speak yet again, but we all know that what we will say will not be that clear. The message will be mumbled, the message will be equivocal, we will be speaking in many voices and not one voice will come out in the end loud and clear," said Keinon. "I think it's fair to say that the net result of our next elections will be another weak coalition government, which will shlep along for two or three years at best until we go back to the polls again."
Keinon reminded the audience that, in the span of 16 years, while the United States had two presidents, Israel had six different prime ministers, five in the last decade. "One thing is certain," said Keinon. "When we go to the polls, we will not finally, once and for all, make a decisive decision to give the new government the power to make the sweeping concessions that would be necessary for a peace deal." Israeli citizens, he said, have not fallen in love with any of the proposed prime ministerial candidates and elections will likely see a continued decline in voter turnout and less interest in politics.
"I have four kids," said Keinon. "My two older kids are going to vote for the first time and are decidedly unenthusiastic.... In the end, they'll vote, because if they don't vote, they won't eat," he joked, "but they're not very exited about it." He said was especially surprised and disappointed with the apathy of his eldest son, because he was a soldier in the army, and who got elected would have even more impact on his life, "but neither he, nor the other people in his unit are at all very interested."
Keinon remarked that gestures like John McCain's concession speech would never happen in Israel because, in Israel, "the loser never really loses.... You know that whoever loses this year will run again in another two years. I guarantee you that Tzipi Livni and Bibi Netanyahu will be running against each other for the next two decades."
Keinon also spoke about the need for the Palestinians to choose between Hamas and Fatah, saying that it was hard to see a way for them to reconcile, but that such reconciliation was necessary if peace is ever to be achieved. He remarked on an interview that he had with the Arab news network El Jazeera, where he was asked if he thought Livni would make peace with the Palestinians. "I looked at the guy and said, 'That's an interesting question, but it's the wrong question. Whoever Israel elects, they're going to make peace with the Palestinians, but you can't say the same thing about the other side.'"
When Keinon was in Vancouver before, he said that he didn't anticipate peace in his lifetime or in his children's. Following last week's lecture, a member of the audience asked if he still felt that way. Keinon answered that Israelis have changed their mindset, from a belief in conflict resolution to that of conflict management, from a desire to resolve the Middle East conflict to an acceptance that they would have to live with it. He said, "I am secure in the knowledge that I have a moral and religious right to be here and that I have to build a society in spite of the ongoing conflict."
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