Interesting times indeed

Editorial

Well, welcome to the 1970s. Despite all the commentary over the past few weeks about this federal election representing a sea-change in the structure of Canadian politics, the results on Monday night looked a great deal like the breakdown three decades ago.

Of course, there was no Bloc Quebecois in 1972, but the relative strengths of the Liberals, the Conservatives and the New Democrats suggest that Paul Martin's minority government will most likely mean Liberal-NDP minority co-operation. This was the traditional configuration of minority governments in the 1960s and 1970s.

The collapse of apparent Conservative momentum mid-campaign needs to be analyzed by better minds than ours. Obviously, the Liberals succeeded in planting doubts in Canadian minds about the Conservatives' competency to govern. Among the issues Canadians seem to have been most anxious about was the direction Stephen Harper might have taken the country on issues such as multiculturalism and minority rights – issues important to many Jewish voters.

Even so, the combined totals of the Liberals and the NDP fall just short of half the seats in the Commons, so the structure of the minority Parliament remains uncertain. More free votes in the House seem likely and would be a welcome boon to representative democracy.

There is enough uncertainty in the election results, however, to leave open a wide range of policy possibilities. In a fragmented Parliament, party policies are likely to be cobbled together like jigsaw puzzles, so the platforms of each individual party – including the winning Liberals – are unlikely to be implemented undiluted.

A few things are predictable. Having wrestled the deficit monster to the ground, Paul Martin is unlikely to allow a return to deficit spending – even in order to buy much-needed parliamentary support. Beyond this, the future looks unclear, but exciting.

Jewish voters were as dispersed across the spectrum as Canadians at large, but there are a few areas of particular interest.

A small conflict erupted in a polling station in north Toronto, where some Orthodox Jews refused to vote in a church where religious artifacts were apparently in plain view.

In terms of Jewish candidates, the four incumbents were returned. Justice Minister Irwin Cotler, who represents Mount Royal, the former bastion of Pierre Trudeau and one of the Liberals' safest seats, swept back to Ottawa with 75 per cent of the vote. In Winnipeg-South Centre, Liberal MP Anita Neville was comfortably re-elected. Liberal Raymonde Falco was re-elected in the Montreal-area riding of Laval-les Iles. Jacques Saada, the government house leader, squeaked out a victory over the Bloc Quebecois in Brossard-La Prairie.

Among incumbent MPs who have proved reliable supporters of Israel, perhaps the most surprising result was here in Vancouver, where Quadra Liberal Stephen Owen sailed to an unexpected landslide over former provincial cabinet minister Stephen Rogers, who was running for the Conservatives. Owen, an outspoken ally of Israel, took 52 per cent of the vote to Rogers' 26 per cent, despite predictions that the seat would be one of the closest in the province. Hedy Fry, who has spoken out on (among other things) Israel's right to defend its citizens, faced stiffer opposition in Vancouver-Centre, but held on to the seat by 4,000 votes.

Across the country, MPs who can be depended on to defend the Jewish state were generally successful. Stockwell Day, former leader of the Canadian Alliance and a fervent ally of Israel, was easily re-elected in his Okanagan riding. Other Conservatives who have spoken out in defence of Israel were also re-elected.
Liberal Joe Volpe romped to a huge majority in the Toronto riding of Eglinton-Lawrence. Other Ontario Liberals who have proved reliable friends of Jewish and Zionist Canadians, such as Jim Peterson, also will return to the House.

Among New Democrats who have resisted the pull to condemn Israel, Winnipeg Centre New Democrat Pat Martin survived comfortably, while in Winnipeg North, where redistribution forced two incumbents to face off, New Democrat Judy Wasylycia-Leis beat Liberal cabinet minister Rey Pagtakhan by a surprisingly comfortable margin.

One thing to watch for is the NDP's assertion that they will press for a national discussion on proportional representation, which would almost certainly mean that minority governments will be a common occurrence, rather than an aberration. For minority communities, proportional representation could offer some interesting opportunities for more dependable representation. It could also lead to legislative bedlam like we've seen in Israel's fragmented Knesset.

One thing is certain. Canadian politics in the next few years is not going to be boring.

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