{"id":18338,"date":"2016-04-15T01:29:28","date_gmt":"2016-04-15T08:29:28","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/?p=18338"},"modified":"2016-04-13T12:17:53","modified_gmt":"2016-04-13T19:17:53","slug":"bleak-future-for-israel","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/2016\/04\/15\/bleak-future-for-israel\/","title":{"rendered":"Bleak future for Israel"},"content":{"rendered":"

Raphael Hoult, winner of the inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition. (photo from Raphael Hoult)<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cA Game of Clocks: An Analysis of the Situation in the Middle East and Its Effects on Israel\u201d by Winnipeg\u2019s Raphael Hoult is the winner of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs\u2019 inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition.<\/p>\n

Hoult, a physics major at the University of Winnipeg in his second year of studies, conjured up a mind-bending theory about the stability of Middle East security and consulted expert sources for his essay.<\/p>\n

In physics, Hoult\u2019s interests lie in the field of quantum gravitation, which attempts to combine two major theories \u2013 those of general relativity and quantum mechanics.<\/p>\n

\u201cThese two theories don\u2019t play well together,\u201d said Hoult. \u201cThey conflict in places. The biggest place they conflict is in that every force in the universe has been quantized, meaning that we\u2019ve found a very small, discrete package of it in the universe. For example, electromagnetism is delivered by something called a photon. The other forces have something that delivers them, as well. But, with gravity, we\u2019ve found no such thing yet. What we say is we haven\u2019t been able to quantify it, though there are a lot of theories out there for how to solve that problem. There\u2019s string theory. Another is loop quantum gravity, that attempts to bring some parts together.<\/p>\n

\u201cI want to help look for a theory of quantum gravity, so we can finally resolve this dilemma … combine the two theories into one bigger theory, a more complete theory. And, hopefully, that will give us a lot more insight into the way gravity works and allow us to do more with our understanding of gravity \u2013 to utilize it more, similar to the way our deeper understanding of electricity and magnetism has allowed us to do more intricate electronics in the past couple years.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hoult, this reconciliation of quantum mechanics and general relativity has been the Holy Grail of physics for the past 50-some years, and solving it will be huge for physicists and the world as we know it.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe proposed theoretical messenger particle for gravity is the graviton, which is something we\u2019ve not yet observed at all,\u201d he said. \u201cQuantum mechanics requires there to be a graviton…. General relativity in no way makes reference to a graviton.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe main thing is quantum mechanics works really well with very small things, general relativity works really well for really big things. Things with a lot of mass are usually very large. The problem comes when you have things that are very massive and also very small, such as neutron stars or black holes. These are very dense, have a lot of mass and exert a lot of gravitational force, but they are also very small. In the case of a black hole, they are actually on the atomic level. So, quantum mechanics is very important to the way they work, but general relativity also is in play. When our two theories don\u2019t work and they are supposed to be working at the same time, that\u2019s a problem and something we want to fix.\u201d<\/p>\n

In addition to his knowledge of physics, Hoult is also well-versed in Israeli politics. \u201cI\u2019ve actually never taken a political science course at university,\u201d he acknowledged, \u201cbut I went to Gray Academy [of Jewish Education in Winnipeg], so I had a very strong basis in knowledge about Israel. I had a good grounding there. I also read the Times of Israel<\/em> and Haaretz<\/em> every day.\u201d<\/p>\n

When Hoult saw an advertisement for the Barry Rubin Essay Competition on Facebook, it piqued his interest. The contest topic was, \u201cWhat does the current regional turmoil in the Middle East mean for Israel?\u201d<\/p>\n

In his essay, Hoult said, \u201cThe three main critical points I talked about were the constancy of Hezbollah, Hamas and Daesh (the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria [ISIS]). I wrote about the fact that Hezbollah is involved in the war in Syria, specifically as affiliates of Bashar Al-Assad. They support him and are fighting on behalf of him. On the flipside, a branch of ISIS, called Al-Wilayat Sinai, is operating in the Sinai Peninsula desert against the Egyptians, making their lives very difficult. They\u2019ve also struck up an alliance with Hamas.\u201d<\/p>\n

According to Hoult, the main three players in regards to Israel involve Hezbollah in the north, Hamas in Gaza and Al-Wilayat Sinai (Daesh) in the south. Hoult does not delve into the Iranian threat in his essay, apart from Iran\u2019s role in supporting these groups.<\/p>\n

\u201cMy hypothesis was that these three forces are connected to one another,\u201d he said. \u201cAnd, because of the ongoing campaign against ISIS, my hypothesis is that, as soon as that campaign succeeds and breaks down ISIS, all hell will break loose for Israel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Hoult explained that this theory takes into account Hezbollah\u2019s huge military arsenal, which is estimated at around 100,000 rockets, and their ability to hit every point in Israel from Metula to Eilat, combined with the southern threat from Hamas and from the Al-Wilayat Sinai, which, so far, has been mainly fighting the Egyptians.<\/p>\n

\u201cOnce ISIS collapses in the north, the Al-Wilayat Sinai … will suddenly be like a tentacle that has been cut off from the squid,\u201d he said. \u201cIt will have no control and will be in desperate throes to stay alive, making it likely that it will involve at least a couple cross-border raids. If those involve any Israeli deaths, it will force Israel to respond, which is an issue, due to the fact that Israel can\u2019t cross the border without Egyptian permission.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere is also the fact that Hamas is having another military build-up,\u201d he added.<\/p>\n

Hoult predicts this will likely lead to another war in 2017 and, once that war is over, he said Hezbollah would have had ample time to gather its troops and possibly attack Israel from the north. \u201cThis is not a good thing for Israel, as Hezbollah is dead set on destroying Israel if they can,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

As to why Hoult thinks his essay was selected as the winner, he said he is not sure, although he imagines it may have \u201chad something to do with all the sources cited, creating a compelling likelihood of my hypotheses coming true.\u201d<\/p>\n

One of his many concerns is that \u201cthe primary backer of Hezbollah and Hamas is Iran. Iran has just had billions of dollars unlocked, due to the nuclear deal … which I\u2019m not going to condemn or support, though I\u2019m a little bit skeptical of whether or not unlocking those funds was a good thing.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Rebeca Kuropatwa<\/strong> is a Winnipeg freelance writer.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Raphael Hoult, winner of the inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition. (photo from Raphael Hoult) \u201cA Game of Clocks: An Analysis of the Situation in the Middle East and Its Effects on Israel\u201d by Winnipeg\u2019s Raphael Hoult is the winner of the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs\u2019 inaugural Barry Rubin Prize Essay Competition. Hoult, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":18325,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[4755,458,5653,4361,3107,5652,1341,4330,1774],"class_list":["post-18338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-national","tag-barry-rubin","tag-cija","tag-daesh","tag-hamas","tag-hezbollah","tag-hoult","tag-isis","tag-israel","tag-terrorism"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":8}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18338","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18338"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18338\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/18325"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18338"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18338"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.jewishindependent.ca\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18338"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}