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September 12, 2008
Who will be Israel's next leader?
Candidates have been jostling to become prime minister after Ehud Olmert's resignation.
RHONDA SPIVAK
On my way to Tel Aviv, while riding in a taxi, I listened to a political talk show on the radio. Suddenly, Eyal Dayan, a 39-year-old taxi driver from Netanya switched off the radio. "Enough bullshit," he said "Every tembel [idiot] in the country tries to pass himself off as some diplomat, some know it all. It's a waste of time to listen to it anymore."
Ever since Ehud Olmert resigned as Israel's prime minister, there has been nonstop analysis in the media here as to what may unfold politically in the coming weeks. And yet, there are many young people, like Ariel Shwartzman from Karkur who tell me, "It doesn't really matter who replaces Olmert. The parties and the politicians are all the same. They are playing a game of musical chairs with each other."
Everyone seems to be in agreement that there really isn't a government in Israel right now. Key ministers in the government, specifically Tzipi Livni (minister of foreign affairs), Shaul Mofaz (minister of transportation), Avi Dichter (minister of internal security) and Meir Shitreet (interior minister), are all busy running their campaigns to replace Olmert as the leader of the Kadima party, and can't possibly be spending time on their work duties. Olmert himself has enough paperwork related to all of the investigations against him to keep him busy for years.
No one here expects that there will be any real advancement in peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians. With the political domestic turmoil in Israel, Palestinian officials have said that there are "zero" chances for reaching any agreement in 2008. Livni, who has been the one managing day-to-day negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, will not have time to devote to these negotiations now that is now that she is fighting to take over Kadima.
The two front-runners for Kadima's leadership, Livni and Mofaz, seem to be neck and neck and, at this time, it seems impossible to predict which one will emerge as the winner. Livni, who comes from north Tel Aviv Ashkenazi family, is more popular than Mofaz in the general public, but may not be as popular as he is among the approximately 15,000 Kadima members who will decide the outcome.
Mofaz, who was born in Iran in 1948, was handpicked by former prime minister Ariel Sharon to be the Israel Defence Forces chief of staff during Israel's disengagement from Gaza. Mofaz's critics say that the reason Sharon chose Mofaz was because he wanted a weak "yes man" who would do what he was told and who didn't really have any ingenuity of his own. Other critics are saying that Mofaz's public comments that Israel must be ready to strike Iran, which have twice caused world oil prices to jump, were irresponsible and were made only to boost Mofaz's popularity in Kadima.
Meir Shitreet, who is likely to place last in the Kadima race, has complained that he is "the only one" in the race for Kadima's leadership who has put forth a clear platform of his political views. He said, for example, that he would give up the Golan Heights for peace with Syria, on the condition that the land would return to Syrian sovereignty again after "there had been 25 years of peace." Neither Livni nor Mofaz have made it very clear what their position is in regard to returning the Golan Heights or the West Bank.
A day after Olmert's resignation, a poll taken by the Israeli newspaper Ha'aretz showed that if Kadima were led by Livni, as opposed to Mofaz, it would beat both Likud and Labor. If Livni does not win, many political observers believe that she will leave Kadima and form her own party. In such a scenario, Mofaz would become the leader of a small rump party that would be seen as "Likud 2." Mofaz would likely join with Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu and could become minister of defence in a Netanyahu-led government.
The current political race has also raised the question of whether it is necessary for an Israeli prime minister to have an extensive security background. Both Mofaz and Labor chairman Ehud Barak have emphasized that the next prime minister of Israel will have to make decisions regarding a possible strike on Iran, a possible larger-scale incursion into Gaza or escalating tensions in the north with Hezbollah. Since Barak has not been doing well in the polls against Livni, he would rather Mofaz take over Kadima. Barak has recently come out swinging against her, saying she "is not fit" to make the decisions required of a prime minister. It remains to be seen whether Barak's comments will backfire, especially among female voters, who may be quite happy to see a woman become prime minister, something which only Golda Meir has achieved in this country.
Although Olmert was taken down by corruption scandals, it seems likely that, with the focus tuned toward national security, the whole issue of corruption may not get that much play in the upcoming election campaign.
Rhonda Spivak is a Winnipeg freelance writer who spends several months a year in Israel.
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