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February 13, 2009
Mixed election results
Victory for Kadima, but voters shift to right.
RON FRIEDMAN
As this paper went to print, half a world away, the citizens of Israel chose a new Knesset and redrew the country's political map.
The formal winner of the day was Kadima chairperson Tzipi Livni who, according to the main networks' exit polls, squeezed out a narrow victory over projected winner Binyamin Netanyahu's Likud. If she is able to build a coalition, she will become Israel's second female prime minister.
In another election upset, the Labor party, Israel's oldest political party and the ruling party for much of its history, fell to an all-time low of 13 seats in the 120-strong Knesset, making it the country's fourth largest party behind Avigdor Lieberman's nationalist Israel Beiteinu.
While the centrist Kadima won the most votes, numbers show that Israeli public opinion has taken a shift to the right. According to Channel 1 and Channel 10 surveys, the right-wing bloc won 63 Knesset seats and the left wing 57, while Channel 2 had it at 64 for the right and 56 for the left.
At press time, both Kadima (28-30 Knesset seats) and the Likud (26-28) were claiming victory and the right to form the next government. But the task rests with Israeli President Shimon Peres to decide who will form the government. Once the final results of the election are known, Peres will consult with party leaders, to determine who they recommend for prime minister. In the past, the task of forming a coalition has been given to the head of the largest party, but election legislation means Peres can grant the first opportunity to the party leader that he judges has the best chance of forming a government, even if that party did not earn the largest mandate in the election.
The task of forming a stable coalition, one that Livni failed at when she attempted to do it in October 2008, following Ehud Olmert's resignation, becomes even more difficult in light of the recent projected results. With the overall shift to the right, it is actually Netanyahu who has more options for government-building if assigned the task.
"Being Israel's prime minister is a tough job, one of the toughest jobs on the planet," said political science expert Dr. Ofer Kenig in a recent pre-election lecture at the Jewish Community Centre of Greater Vancouver. Kenig, who is originally from Israel, is currently doing post-doctorate work at the University of British Columbia. He is a graduate of the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
In his Vancouver lecture, Kenig spoke about the events and circumstances that led up to the election and, relying on the polling numbers at that time, outlined six possible future coalitions – two in case the case of a Kadima victory and four in the event that Likud was the winner. Though he declined to make formal predictions, Kenig's analysis was based on numbers closely resembling the actual results.
According to Kenig, Livni has two options she can pursue. The first is to form a national unity government, which would mean arriving at an agreement with Netanyahu and the Likud, then adding Sepharadi-religious Shas and Labor. She could expand this government by choosing between right-wing Israel Beiteinu (15 seats) and left-wing Meretz (six seats). Her second option, Kenig argued, is to form what he called a "civic agenda" coalition. In this case, Livni would take on the secular parties on both sides of the political spectrum to form a rare ultra-Orthodox-free government. "In some aspects, Israel Beiteinu and Meretz are very close to one another. They both support civic marraiges. They are both very secular in nature ... so perhaps," suggested Kenig. Before the election, Meretz declared that they wouldn't sit on a government with Lieberman.
Despite the narrow loss to Kadima, it is actually Netanyahu who is better situated to form a coalition. Kenig outlined four different scenarios that, if Livni failed, Netanyahu might pursue.
The first option is a right-wing government comprised of Likud, Israel Beiteinu, Shas, the Ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism party and possibly one other settler party, provided they pass the two per cent electoral threshold. "This is probably a scenario that Bibi Netanyahu wouldn't want to see, because, in such a scenario, Likud and Bibi will be the left pole in the coalition," said Kenig.
The second option, what Kenig called "Bibi's Dream Team," is a coalition made up of Likud, Labor, Israel Beiteinu and Shas. "Netanyahu would love to have a government with Ehud Barak as minister of defence on his left and Lieberman on his right," said Kenig. The added bonus for Netanyahu in such a scenario, according to Kenig, would be his pleasure at seeing Kadima's Livni and the rest of the Likud defectors sitting out in the cold.
In the event that Labor refused to sit in this type of a government without Kadima, Netanyahu could try a third option, said Kenig: "a wall-to-wall coalition" made up of Likud, Kadima, Labor, Shas and Israel Beiteinu.
Netanyahu's fourth option is a centrist government. This government would have the same makeup as the Livni coalition, only it would be headed by Netanyahu.
Election day in Israel had its share of mishaps and irregularities. Complaints of ballot forgery were issued to the central elections committee from all sides, cases of voter intimidation were reported and, in some polling stations, ballots had to be cast by candlelight, as harsh weather caused power outages in the southern part of the country.
Despite stormy weather and rumbles about apparent pre-election apathy, voter turnout increased. An estimated 67 per cent of eligible voters cast their ballots, reversing the prior trend that saw turnout numbers dwindling. The numbers show an increase of nearly three per cent from the previous election in 2006.
Indications show that the votes of the 20 per cent of the population who described themselves as undecided were nearly evenly distributed among the top three parties, with a slight edge to Kadima and a shift from Likud to Israel Beiteinu among right-leaning uncertain voters.
Official results were not available before the publication of this article. Peres is expected to decide on who gets to attempt to build a coalition sometime early next week.
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